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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-12-24T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-24T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35909/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Relatively wide, bright CME in SOHO LASCO running difference imagery seen to the southeast and much fainter in white light imagery, likely associated with an M4.1-flare from AR13932 (S17E17) with an associated eruption. In addition to the flare seen in GOES 131 imagery, a significant looking eruption in GOES 284 with a large magnetic loop and dimming signature around 2024-12-24T08:30Z is observed near the vicinity of the active region. No clear arrival signature in solar wind at L1: there might be a weak arrival around ~2024-12-28T15:40Z, with separation of magnetic field components and a drop in density but it is inconclusive.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-28T01:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.5 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -259.45 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:57Z

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